Analysis

What a Manchin third-party bid in 2024 might mean

Manchin keeps dropping hints. But where would his votes come from?

By Aaron BlakeMay 11, 2023
Analysis

CNN town hall lays bare Trump’s very unpopular agenda

Say what you will about CNN granting Donald Trump its platform, but it reinforced how strongly unpopular many of his 2024 positions are.

By Aaron BlakeMay 11, 2023
Analysis

How Republicans feel about Trump and sexual misconduct

Polls have shown a significant degree of concern about former president Donald Trump and these issues. But they've also shown Republicans unconvinced Trump went too far.

By Aaron BlakeMay 10, 2023
Analysis

The seemingly damning indictment of Rep. George Santos

A look at the charges against Rep. George Santos and the compelling paper trail that allowed investigators to piece the case together so quickly.

By Aaron BlakeMay 10, 2023
Analysis

4 takeaways from the E. Jean Carroll verdict against Trump

Parsing the verdict and the political fallout.

By Aaron BlakeMay 9, 2023
Analysis

What the detente between Trump and a top antiabortion group suggests

Three weeks after a harshly critical statement, the group is saying nice things about Trump — despite little indication that he's changed his position that abortion “should be decided at the state level.”

By Aaron BlakeMay 9, 2023
Analysis

Biden’s mental sharpness polling decline

It’s not just the new Washington Post-ABC News poll. This is a liability — and notably, on an issue that was a wash in 2020.

By Aaron BlakeMay 8, 2023
Analysis

Durbin ups the pressure on Feinstein — gently

The Senate Judiciary Committee chair’s CNN interview suggested patience is beginning to run short amid calls for Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) to resign.

By Aaron BlakeMay 8, 2023
Analysis

Trump’s affair was huge tabloid news. Now it’s apparently news to him.

Trump claimed in a deposition that he couldn’t remember if he was seeing Marla Maples before his divorce from Ivana Trump. It would be quite a thing to forget.

By Aaron BlakeMay 6, 2023
Analysis

The brazen explanation for concealing the Ginni Thomas payment

That people can be “malicious and gossipy” apparently trumped their right to know who paid a Supreme Court justice’s spouse.

By Aaron BlakeMay 5, 2023
Analysis

A brief timeline of Clarence Thomas’s ethics questions

All the major events, in timeline form.

By Aaron BlakeMay 4, 2023
Analysis

Trump is inviting Dems to make 2024 about Jan. 6. And they’re obliging.

The day has featured prominently in campaign launches by President Biden and Senate candidates. Here’s how it might play, relative to 2022.

By Aaron BlakeMay 4, 2023
Analysis

A harsh verdict on Fox News post-Dominion — even from GOP

A new poll shows Americans say by a 30-point margin that Fox host knowingly aired false claims. And even Republicans are about evenly split on the question.

By Aaron BlakeMay 3, 2023
Analysis

When will the debt ceiling battle end? Most likely at the cliff’s edge.

Resolutions on the debt ceiling and similar matters almost always come at the 11th hour because the deadline is the leverage, so nobody has an incentive to cave early.

By Aaron BlakeMay 3, 2023
Analysis

5 ways the debt ceiling fight could end

A trillion-dollar coin? Just ignoring the debt ceiling? A default?

By Amber PhillipsMay 3, 2023
Analysis

No, Democrats didn’t threaten to pull funds for Supreme Court security

Sometimes a coincidence is just a coincidence.

By Aaron BlakeMay 2, 2023
Analysis

5 striking findings about what the GOP wants in 2024

We know Republicans are turning back to Trump. Here’s the “why.”

By Aaron BlakeMay 2, 2023
Analysis

A week after Tucker Carlson’s exit, McCarthy goes big for Ukraine

The significance of the House speaker's strongest comments to date.

By Aaron BlakeMay 1, 2023
Analysis

How the Republican Party has shifted against transgender rights

As acceptance of trans people has declined in the GOP, support for restrictions and criminalization has risen.

By Aaron BlakeMay 1, 2023
Analysis

A significant moment in the GOP’s abortion struggles

A few Republicans in red-state legislatures have begun to buck their party and vote against the most extreme measures, as other signs of concern abound.

By Aaron BlakeApril 28, 2023